How to forcast marketing, Tea leaves, crystal balls, or data?

This problem is one that I am working on here at Soap Warehouse and one that I am sure most of you have to deal with at least a few times a year if not monthly. Where do I spend the money I have on advertising? How to I figure out what is working and what new to try?

I read this short article yesterday that got me to thinking of a plan of action.
BUSINESS MARKETING: Tea leaves, crystal balls, or data?
Maybe it can help you as it hopefully will help us here at Soap Warehouse.

This along with a program I love FreeMind, these I hope will help keep our marketing fluid, impactful and as cost effective as possible.

With the FreeMind application I will enter in all the options we have found this year for marketing. I will put in all the dates (when I have to have work orders in or closing dates) and costs of all the opportunities we might want to try this year. Even if I doubt we will be able to afford a few of them. At least they will be on the radar as ideas to shoot for later.

Then as the year progresses and results are measured with each marketing program I will be able to see if something worked and we need to continue on this path, that will cause us to negate other programs, or if we will stop one method or avenue, leaving open the time and money to try another tack on our marketing course.

This way I can start out this year with a set budget but not a definite place where all the resources will go so that we can make changes during the year or even each month as things change.

I hope these can help you as well.